Last modified by Peyton Reeves on 2019/09/22 12:35

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Summary

Details

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1 +1AC
2 +
3 +Transparency
4 +
5 +Scenario 1 is arms racing
6 +
7 +A space arms race is coming now absent information sharing; global institutional solutions have failed to keep up. Only the aff can resolve tensions.
8 +David Koplow, Summer 2018, “The Fault Is Not in Our Stars: Avoiding an Arms Race in Outer Space,” Harvard International Law Journal vol. 59(2), https://harvardilj.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/HLI205_crop-1.pdf. ZKMSU
9 +The world today is wobbling on the precipice of a threatening new arms race in
10 +AND
11 +the international consensus among spacefaring states to avoid or mitigate the new dangers.
12 +
13 +The aff sets an international precedent that spills over to prevent future arms racing.
14 +David Koplow, Summer 2018, “The Fault Is Not in Our Stars: Avoiding an Arms Race in Outer Space,” Harvard International Law Journal vol. 59(2), https://harvardilj.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/HLI205_crop-1.pdf. ZKMSU
15 +A major contention in this Article is that precedent matters. Sometimes, it is
16 +AND
17 +institutions, and procedures that can now be fruitfully applied in new contexts.
18 +
19 +Misperceptions fuel a US-China space arms race – causes nuclear war – cooperation now is key
20 +UCS, 2014, national nonprofit organization founded by scientists at MIT who sought to use the power of science to address global problems and improve people’s lives. "Nuclear Weapons and US-China Relations" Union of Concerned Scientists. Accessed 7-8-2019 https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/us-china-relations/mnw
21 +Tensions between the United States and China, made worse by mistrust and misunderstandings,
22 +AND
23 +sustain norms against the development, testing, and deployment of space weapons.
24 +
25 +Extinction
26 +PND 16. internally citing Zbigniew Brzezinski, Council of Foreign Relations and former national security adviser to President Carter, Toon and Robock’s 2012 study on nuclear winter in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Gareth Evans’ International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament Report, Congressional EMP studies, studies on nuclear winter by Seth Baum of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and Martin Hellman of Stanford University, and U.S. and Russian former Defense Secretaries and former heads of nuclear missile forces, brief submitted to the United Nations General Assembly, Open-Ended Working Group on nuclear risks. A/AC.286/NGO/13. 05-03-2016. http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/OEWG/2016/Documents/NGO13.pdf
27 +Consequences human survival 12. Even if the 'other' side does NOT launch in response
28 +AND
29 +course the immediate post-nuclear results for Hiroshima and Nagasaki as well.
30 +
31 +Scenario 2 is miscalc
32 +
33 +Independently, limited SSA leads to space miscalculation and conflict spirals – the aff solves by creating effective transparency and communication
34 +Sabrina Pagano and John A. Stevenson, 2018, Pagano, Ph.D., NSI. Stevenson, Ph.D., NSI. “How Disagreement Over Space Terms Can Create Barriers to Transparency in the Space Domain” NSI. Accessed 8-19-2019. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1066723.pdf/mnw
35 +In short, the remoteness of space means that adverse events are occurring all the
36 +AND
37 +in the face of adverse events about which space actors have limited SSA.
38 +
39 +Space situational awareness cooperation generates transparency that increases trust and confidence – solves ASAT attacks
40 +Mariel Borowitz, 2019, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology. “Strategic Implications of the Proliferation of Space Situational Awareness Technology and Information: Lessons Learned from the Remote Sensing Sector” Space Policy 47 (2019) 18-27. Accessed 8-19-2019. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0265964617300164/mnw
41 +6.5. Increased global transparency and stability. Scholars accurately predicted that the
42 +AND
43 +allies and non-allies further increases trust and confidence among these nations.
44 +
45 +ASAT attack breaks down deterrence – causes nuclear war
46 +Gallagher 15 (Nancy, interim director of the Center for International and Security Studies in Maryland, previous Executive Director of the Clinton Administration’s CTBT Treaty Committee, an arms control specialist at the State Dept., and a faculty member at Wesleyan, “Antisatellite warfare without nuclear risk: A mirage,” May 29, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, http://thebulletin.org/space-weapons-and-risk-nuclear-exchanges8346)
47 +In recent decades, however, as space-based reconnaissance, communication, and
48 +AND
49 +scenarios that are used to justify the development and use of antisatellite weapons.
50 +
51 +Scenario 3 is conflict
52 +
53 +Info-sharing with China is key to de-escalate tensions through mutual trust
54 +Cody Knipfer, 12-7-2017, Technology & Cybersecurity Fellow at Young Professionals in Foreign Policy (YPFP). "The U.S. and China Need to Start Cooperating in Space" RealClearScience. Accessed 8-23-2019 https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2017/12/07/the_us_and_china_need_to_start_cooperating_in_space_110479.html/mnw
55 +There is utility in the practice of exchanging information. Space cooperation allows partners to
56 +AND
57 +during times of tension on Earth than what the current status quo offers.
58 +
59 +US-China war goes nuclear
60 +Hallin 17 (Columnist for Foreign Policy in Focus, "A Think Tank Without Walls," and an independent journalist. He oversaw the journalism program at the University of California, Santa Cruz for 23 years “How Trump Could Blunder Into War With China” accessed online 3/9/17 https://www.fairobserver.com/region/asia_pacific/china-news-donald-trump-chinese-world-news-35405/
61 +Rather than trying to assuage China’s paranoia, the US made things worse by adopting
62 +AND
63 +, and the odds are distressingly high that the war could go nuclear.
64 +
65 +Debris
66 +
67 +Advantage 2 is space debris
68 +
69 +US-China info sharing is key to prevent cascading debris
70 +Timothy Yin, 10-7-2016, Georgetown University. "U.S.-China Cooperation in the Final Frontier of Space" US-China Dialogue. Accessed 8-23-2019 https://uschinadialogue.georgetown.edu/responses/u-s-china-cooperation-in-the-final-frontier-of-space/mnw
71 +First, both countries’ space agencies should implement direct data sharing in the important areas
72 +AND
73 +agreement regulating space exploration and establishing verifiable limits on military competition in space.
74 +
75 +Space situational awareness data is decisive to effective space traffic management – that solves debris through collision avoidance
76 +Stefan A. Kaiser, 2015, LL.M. (McGill), Heinsberg, Germany. “Legal and policy aspects of space situational awareness” Space Policy, 31, 5–12. Accessed 8-18-2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2014.11.002/mnw
77 +Space situational awareness will constitute an important element of future space traffic management. While
78 +AND
79 +for all actions to be undertaken subsequently as part of space traffic management.
80 +
81 +Risk of collision is high and growing~-~--reject other studies. Only SSA sharing solves
82 +D.L. Oltroggea, 18, June 2018, *Senior Research Astrodynamicist with AGI's Center for Space Standards and Innovation and Program Manager of the Space Data Center,, S. Alfanoa, C. Lawb, A. Cacionic. T.S. Kelsod, "A comprehensive assessment of collision likelihood in Geosynchronous Earth Orbit", Pages 316-345, Volume 417, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576517315011, AVD
83 +Conclusions Results indicate that a collision is likely to occur every 4 years for the
84 +AND
85 +time-varying dynamics of this orbit regime, likely yielding erroneous results.
86 +
87 +Space debris threat is underestimated and causes systemic collapse that destroys the entire Low Earth Orbit
88 +HL 19, 1-22-2019, Hive Life. An Oxford Research Fellow and specialist in space sustainability and technology governance, Dr Nikita Chiu sat down with Hive Life to explain why cleaning up space should be the next global priority in the 21st century, "It’s Time to Take the Trash out of Space", https://hivelife.com/space-debris-problem/, AVD
89 +Have you even heard of space debris? Made up of hundreds of thousands of
90 +AND
91 +the international community to wake up and start addressing the progressively deteriorating situation.”
92 +
93 +That blots out the Sun – extinction
94 +Scheetz 6 Lori, J.D. Candidate at Georgetown University Law Center, “Infusing Environmental Ethics into the Space Weapons Dialouge,” Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, Fall, 19 Geo. Int'l Envtl. L. Rev. 57
95 +Despite the fact that the Outer Space Treaty, the centerpiece of the treaty regime
96 +AND
97 +near the Earth highly hazardous for peaceful as well as military purposes." n90
98 +
99 +Sats solve atmosphere degradation and all conflicts
100 +Dunstan 9 – James, JD, Space and Technology Lawyer – Garvey Schubert Barer, and Berin Szoka, Senior Feelow – Progress and Freedom Foundation, Director – Space Frontier Foundation, and Member of the Commerical Space Transportation Advisory Committee – Federal Aviation Administration, “Beware Of Space Junk: Global Warming Isn’t the Only Major Environmental Problem”, http://techliberation.com/2009/1t2/18/beware-of-space-junk-global-warming-isnt-the-only-major-environmental-problem/
101 +As world leaders meet in Copenhagen to consider drastic carbon emission restrictions that could require
102 +AND
103 +making humanity a multi-planetary civilization capable of surviving true climatic catastrophes.
104 +
105 +Without the atmosphere, extinction
106 +Linkenhoker 18 Living In Virginia, Eric Linkenhoker has written professionally since 2011. His expertise lies in automotive work, stringed instruments and home improvement. He has been published online. Linkenhoker received a Master of Science in English from Radford University with concentrations in American literature and business writing. 4/23. "Three Ways That the Atmosphere Helps Living Things Survive on Earth." https://sciencing.com/three-living-things-survive-earth-8632405.html
107 +Without an atmosphere, the Earth would be a rocky planet with no oceans,
108 +AND
109 +on Earth and delivers precipitation to areas that otherwise would not have water.
110 +
111 +Satellites solve pandemics
112 +Ford et al. 09 Timothy E. Ford, PhD in Aquatic Microbiology from the University College of North Wales, Bangor, department head of Microbiology at Montana State University. “Satellite Imagery in Predicting Infectious Disease Outbreaks.” https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/15/9/08-1334_article
113 +The scientific community has a relative consensus that epidemic and pandemic disease risks will be
114 +AND
115 +belief that a strong global satellite program is essential for future disease prediction.
116 +
117 +Pandemics causes extinction – maintaining system resilience is key
118 +Millett 17 Piers Consultant for the World Health Organization, PhD in International Relations and Affairs, University of Bradford, Andrew Snyder-Beattie. “Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity.” http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028
119 +Historically, disease events have been responsible for the greatest death tolls on humanity.
120 +AND
121 +, and available vectors, could be modified as well.19-2
122 +
123 +Satellites key to fighting climate change
124 +Anmar Frangoul, 5-26-2016, "How satellites are helping to fight climate change," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/26/how-satellites-are-helping-to-fight-climate-change.html/ceng
125 +They may be many, many miles up in the air, but satellites have
126 +AND
127 +from the wind from the sun and from biomass fuels," he said.
128 +
129 +Warming turns every impact and causes extinction
130 +Torres 16 (Phil, affiliate scholar @ Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies PhD candidate @ Rice University in tropical conservation biology, Op-ed: Climate Change Is the Most Urgent Existential Risk, http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/Torres20160807)
131 +Humanity faces a number of formidable challenges this century. Threats to our collective survival
132 +AND
133 +the near-term. Let’s make sure we get our priorities straight.
134 +
135 +Solvency
136 +
137 +Plan: The United States federal government should establish a National Space Policy to increase exchange and management of space situational awareness information with the People’s Republic of China
138 +
139 +Cooperation with China over space situational awareness information is key to active debris avoidance and space sustainability – China says yes – empirically pursue info sharing
140 +Yang Kuan, 2019, School of Law, Beijing Institute of Technology. “Chinese perspective on an international regime of space traffic management” Journal of Space Safety Engineering, 6 (2019) 156-160. Accessed 8-19-2019. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2468896719300631/mnw
141 +3.3. Space situation awareness and information sharing Space situation awareness is the
142 +AND
143 +efforts have shown that China takes a fairly open position in this regard.
144 +
145 +China says yes – mutual interest – builds trust and provides global collision warning
146 +Bhavya Lal et al, 4-1-2018, Asha Balakrishnan Becaja M. Caldwell Reina S. Buenconsejo Sara A. Carioscia. “Global Trends in Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Space Traffic Management (STM)” Institute for Defense Analyses, operates three Federally Funded Research and Development Centers. Accessed 9-2-2019. https://www.ida.org/-/media/feature/publications/g/gl/global-trends-in-space-situational-awareness-ssa-and-space-traffic-management-stm/d-9074.ashx/mnw
147 +Interestingly, official Chinese documents state that SSA is an opportunity to foster international collaborations
148 +AND
149 +Table 2-1 provides an overview of the rationales for doing SSA.
150 +
151 +China is key – they have sensor tech all over the world
152 +Bhavya Lal et al, 4-1-2018, Asha Balakrishnan Becaja M. Caldwell Reina S. Buenconsejo Sara A. Carioscia. “Global Trends in Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Space Traffic Management (STM)” Institute for Defense Analyses, operates three Federally Funded Research and Development Centers. Accessed 9-2-2019. https://www.ida.org/-/media/feature/publications/g/gl/global-trends-in-space-situational-awareness-ssa-and-space-traffic-management-stm/d-9074.ashx/mnw
153 +Through the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO), China is leading the
154 +AND
155 +Brazil and Ukraine. By 2017, Mexico had joined the APOSOS network.
156 +
157 +Chang’e 4 cooperation thumps – included info sharing
158 +ST, 1-19-2019, "Nasa and China collaborate on Moon exploration" The Straits Times. Accessed 9-4-2019 https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/nasa-and-china-collaborate-on-moon-exploration/mnw
159 +WASHINGTON (AFP) - The space agencies of the United States and China are
160 +AND
161 +out the spacecraft was not in the right place at the right time.
162 +
163 +Dialogues thump DA’s and validate “say yes” arguments
164 +Rose, 16 – Frank A. Rose, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance. “Strengthening International Cooperation in Space Situational Awareness,” Dept of State, Congressional testimony delivered on Sept 22, https://2009-2017.state.gov/t/avc/rls/262502.htm
165 +I chaired the first U.S.-China Space Security Exchange with my Chinese
166 +AND
167 +, we have agreed to hold a second Space Security Exchange this fall.
168 +
169 +China is defensive realist – only a policy of accommodation can reduce the risk of conflict
170 +Ghazala Jalil 19~-~--Research Fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, Institute of Strategic Studies, Volume 39, Issue 1, Spring 2019, http://issi.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/3-SS_Ghazala_Yasmin_Jalil_No-1_2019.pdf
171 +However, since the 1970s China’s policies have shown less revisionist tendencies. The country
172 +AND
173 +, there is not much evidence to support the theory of offensive realism.
174 +
175 +Plan is a TCBM, checking inevitable conflict from other sources
176 +Brian Weeden & Xiao He 4-26-2016 Technical Adviser at the Secure World Foundation in Washington, D.C. Xiao He is an Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute of World Economics and Politics in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "Use Outer Space to Strengthen U.S.-China Ties" War on the Rocks https://warontherocks.com/2016/04/use-outer-space-to-strengthen-u-s-china-ties/ (ermo/sms)
177 +With the end of the Cold War, outer space activities lost much of their
178 +AND
179 +capabilities, and increasing data sharing with each other and the spacefaring community.
180 +
181 +Other SSA Sharing thumps
182 +Mariel Borowitz, 2019, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology. “Strategic Implications of the Proliferation of Space Situational Awareness Technology and Information: Lessons Learned from the Remote Sensing Sector” Space Policy 47 (2019) 18-27. Accessed 8-19-2019. Ermo/sms https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0265964617300164
183 +While additional enhancements are still needed, the system improved significantly over time 11
184 +AND
185 +further improve engagement with foreign, civil, and commercial entities 14.
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Judge
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1 +Fred Sternhagen
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1 +UMKC DW
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1 +1
Round
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1 +3
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1 +Missouri State VanDyke-Reeves Aff
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1 +1AC ~-~-- SSA
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1 +UMKC